Bitcoin Rally Faces Key Test at $84K as CPI Cooldown

• Bitcoin has broken above $82,360 and has further potential to reach $91,500 if the uptrend persists.
• The bullish sentiment is supported by exchange outflows and large accumulations.

Bitcoin ($BTC) has followed through to break above a critical resistance level of $82,360, leading toward the upside target of $91,500. According to the on-chain analysis by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, there is a possible bullish outlook for BTC based on the UTXO Realized Price Distribution data. This BTC price level was a previous support area, specifically around $82,360, and is the current major reversal zone crucial for further price development.

This is evident from Glassnode’s URPD chart, which shows that Bitcoin has little resistance until the $91,500 level. As reported by CryptoQuant, the potential clean breakout could take the price towards $96,000. However, the failure to prolong bullish conditions may reverse this area quickly and act as a resistance level.

Exchange Outflows and Accumulation Strengthen Bullish Outlook

The exchange net flow of Bitcoin shows that investors are willing to hold Bitcoins for a longer period of time. Based on CryptoQuant data , BTC exchange reserves are still dropping, with a recent net outflow of 737 BTC. Such low supply on exchanges is often the result of long-term accumulation in larger wallets, thereby alleviating potential sell pressure.

Adding to the bullish sentiments, there is a notable rise in the accumulation of Bitcoin. Addresses known for amassing BTC received 48,575 BTC worth $3.6 billion, which is the largest single-day intake since February 2022. This indicates that the large holders are bullish on higher prices that will happen in the near future.

Derivatives Market Signals Elevated Interest Despite Volatility

According to Coinglass, BTC’s futures open interest remains high at $55.11 billion, suggesting increased trading activity. Overall, daily trading volume decreased by 12.41% and reached $150.07 billion, but the increase in open interest at 2.30% indicates that traders are gearing up for further ups and downs.

The long/short ratio across major exchanges indicates balanced sentiment, with Binance and OKX showing slightly higher long positions. However, derivatives liquidations are still high and have been even negative $110.37 million over the past 24 hours. Short positions comprised most of the losses, indicating that traders are taking big bets on a bullish trend. The options market activity also decreased by 56.85% to $3.98 billion, which could be attributed to bearishness due to market volatility.

Macro Developments Provide Short-Term Catalysts

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $80,000 on Friday, retreading earlier gains, and declined 1.6% in the past 24 hours at press time. The decline came on the heels of a higher-than-expected March U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), which came in at 2.4%, below February’s 2.8%. The reading also came in above analyst’s estimate of 2.5%, increasing anticipation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Typically, lower inflation decreases the likelihood of more rate hikes in the future – a narrative that tends to benefit assets such as cryptocurrency and equities. However, markets failed to rally following the CPI data.

The S&P 500 was down by 3.4%, while the Nasdaq fell by 4.3%, an indication of the general concern over economic unpredictability. The total crypto market capitalization similarly declined by 2.8% in the last 24 hours.