Looking at the daily chart for Bitcoin, after a period of narrow-range consolidation over the weekend, the price opened higher today, testing the 90,000 level before encountering resistance and pulling back slightly. The Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, with short-term moving averages hovering around the middle band. The MACD fast and slow lines are trending upwards with increasing volume, while the KDJ indicator is crossing upwards and the VR indicator is consolidating around 90. On the four-hour chart, the early morning bullish candle broke through the upper Bollinger Band but encountered resistance around the EMA200 and is currently trading above it. Short-term moving averages are showing signs of turning upwards around the middle band, and the Bollinger Bands are widening. The MACD fast and slow lines have broken above the zero line again with increasing volume, while the KDJ indicator is encountering resistance near 100 and shows signs of turning downwards. The VR indicator is consolidating around 100. Overall, while the morning's rally was relatively strong, it didn't break through the resistance zone. In the short term, the resistance around 90,000 can be referenced first. If a breakout occurs, the focus should be on the resistance around the upper Bollinger Band on the daily chart. Support below is around 88,000. If this level is broken, the previous support level around 86,000 should be monitored. See short-term recommendations. Bitcoin short-term recommendations: Long at 88,500 (long at 86,800), Short at 90,050 (short at 91,800) (Take profits as needed). Ethereum's morning rally touched 3056 before a slight pullback, which aligns with the second resistance level of 3055 mentioned above. The overall technical picture is linked to Bitcoin. The four-hour candlestick chart also encountered resistance around the EMA200. The current pullback after touching resistance and closing with a bearish candle indicates that this high point is effective in the short term and can be referenced. If a breakout occurs, the resistance around the 60-day moving average on the daily chart should be monitored. Support below is around 2950, followed by 2880. See short-term recommendations. Auntie's short-term trading advice: Short at 3038 (Short at 3120), Long at 2975 (Long at 2908) (Click the image to see the homepage introduction for more currency analysis) — I am Zhou Yueying.
Today's analysis of BTC across multiple timeframes and news: Short-term (15m/1h): After consolidation, a violent surge occurred. The MA5/10/20 are in a bullish alignment, and the MACD golden cross is showing increasing volume, indicating a strong bullish structure. However, the RSI > 70 indicates significant overbought conditions, suggesting a potential pullback or high-level consolidation in the short term. Support levels are at 89000, with secondary levels at 88500–87800; resistance is at 89380, with a strong psychological level at 90000. Medium-term (4h): The trend has shifted to a steady upward movement. The moving averages have just formed a bullish pattern, the MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero line, and the RSI is approximately 64, indicating further upside potential. Support is at 88000, and resistance is at 90588. Long-term (daily): The daily MACD golden cross has been established, and the price has broken above the dense area of moving averages, suggesting a potential trend reversal; the RSI is approximately 50, indicating a less crowded market. Key support levels are at 87000–87500, and resistance is at 90000–91000.
News: Price broke through 88k/89k, aligning with technical indicators, leading to a broad market rally and improved sentiment; however, macroeconomic and localized risks should be noted. Strategy: Avoid chasing highs in the short term; consider a small long position if the price retraces to 89000/88500 and holds. For medium- to long-term positions, consider building positions in batches between 88000 and 87500; a break and hold above 90000 would indicate further upside potential.
Remember: Following the trend + risk control, patience and discipline will be rewarded by the market. I've been using the KTX exchange recently, and the trading experience is great. Register to get high rebates: https://www.ktx.com/zh/login/register?invite_code=0F2mBc
This issue provides a comprehensive analysis of BTC from short-term to long-term perspectives, taking into account both sentiment and funding factors.
Technical Structure: On the evening of December 26th, BTC quickly dropped from 89000 to 86600 before entering a low-level consolidation phase. It rebounded to above 87300, but volume was weak, indicating insufficient buying pressure. Short-term moving averages are in a bearish alignment and converging, the MACD histogram has turned positive, and the RSI has rebounded from oversold territory, indicating weakening downward momentum but not yet strengthening. The daily chart remains in a downward channel, with moving averages suppressing the price. The daily MACD histogram has turned positive and expanded, forming a potential bullish divergence, suggesting weakening downward momentum and a potential technical rebound window. Key price levels: Support 86600, 85500–84500; Resistance 87500–87700, 88000–88200, with strong resistance above 89000.
Sentiment and Funding: The Fear & Greed Index is at "Extreme Fear," serving as a contrarian indicator. BTC market share remains high, while USDT market capitalization has slightly declined, with funds only tentatively flowing back in. Whales have made large transfers, but the direction is unclear, requiring caution. Overall Assessment: Short-term consolidation and correction, medium-term bearish, and long-term downward momentum weakening. Strategy: Aggressive long positions can be initiated with small positions at 86800-87000 if volume increases and stabilization occurs; conservative short positions can be attempted with small positions at 87700-88000 if resistance is encountered. Take Profit: Long at 87700/88400, Short at 86800/85500; Stop Loss: Long below 86500, Short below 88200.
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