Gu Jingci: A major trend for Bitcoin/Ethereum is coming on April 17th, coupled with expectations of further negotiations.
Bitcoin/Ethereum saw multiple attempts to short at higher prices yesterday, and the price action followed the expected pattern, rising and then falling back, breaking recent lows to around 73200 and 2280, remaining within a narrow range. Last night, Trump continued to release positive news, including the US-Iran negotiations and the Lebanon ceasefire agreement, which boosted US stocks to new highs. However, the cryptocurrency market remained range-bound at high levels after the initial rise, failing to break recent highs, indicating that the market is gradually becoming indifferent to this news. If negotiations fail, the ceasefire agreement expires, or further conflict erupts, any significant rallies triggered by news will eventually be followed by a rapid decline. The 4-hour chart for Bitcoin and Ethereum shows the last two candlesticks are bearish, indicating weakening upward momentum and a market correction. The current closing price is near the lowest point and has broken below the opening price of the previous bullish candlestick, indicating that sellers are in control. On the 4-hour chart, the DIF line has crossed below the DEA line, forming a death cross, and the MACD histogram has turned from red to green and is expanding, indicating increased bearish pressure and a downward trend in the short term. The market is currently still in a bear market, with rallies accompanied by fragile positive news. Once these positive factors disappear, the market could see even greater declines. Furthermore, the article published yesterday afternoon regarding the US-Iran negotiations clearly stated that a few rounds of talks between the two countries are unlikely to yield results, which itself introduces greater uncertainty. Trading recommendations: Bitcoin: Short at the current price of 74700, add to the short position at 75400, target around 72500; Ethereum: Short at the current price of 2330, add to the short position at 2365, target around 2250, break below to 71000 and 2200, with further downside targets at 76000 and 2390.