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Market Trends Trading Insights Data Broadcast New Listing Alert Prediction Market

An account purchased $120,000 worth of tickets for the European Super Cup; Paris Saint-Germain will not beat Aston Villa.

Source: 星球日报

PPP prediction market monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "European Super Cup Paris Saint-Germain vs. Aston Villa" prediction event, an account with profits exceeding $190,000 (0x86d2d490bcac9fccea02a44c48272008e0c4731d) purchased $120,000 worth of positions predicting Paris Saint-Germain would not defeat Aston Villa, with an average opening price of 43¢. The total trading volume for this event is currently approximately $587,500, with approximately $521,000 of the trading volume for a Paris Saint-Germain victory, accounting for the majority of the trading funds. This match will be played at a neutral venue. Paris Saint-Germain is the market favorite due to its squad depth and European performance, while Aston Villa is managed by Unai Emery. This market only settles based on the result of the regular 90 minutes and stoppage time. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.

The New York City Council is investigating four major prediction market platforms, including Polymarket, focusing on the risks associated with advertising and forced betting.

Source: 星球日报

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the New York City Council is investigating advertising practices by Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase, and Titan, a prediction market platform owned by Gemini, bringing new regulatory pressure to the prediction market industry. New York City Council Speaker Julie Menin has sent inquiry letters to the four platforms as part of a legislative investigation to assess whether existing city laws adequately protect residents from false or deceptive marketing. Furthermore, the New York City Council is also studying policies to address issues such as prediction market products potentially inducing users to make "forced bets" on event contracts. In its letter to Polymarket, the City Council stated that the investigation will not only cover allegations against Polymarket but will also assess the prevalence of similar marketing practices throughout the prediction market industry and their potential social harm.

An account purchased $40,000 worth of LCK Season 3 tickets, which saw DK defeat KT.

Source: 星球日报

PPP's market prediction tool monitoring shows that in Polymarket's prediction event of "LCK Season 3 DK vs KT", an account with profits exceeding $7 million (0x2c335066fe58fe9237c3d3dc7b275c2a034a0563) purchased $40,000 worth of DK shares, predicting DK's victory over KT. The average opening price was 63¢, with a total purchase volume of 98,840 shares. Additionally, this address also held $45,000 worth of Game 1 DK winning shares. The match started at 19:00 Beijing time on August 12th, and the format was BO3. It is reported that KT selected their second team's AD carry, Jiwoo, for this match. Join the PPP signal push community to get a head start and seize the opportunity.

On Polymarket, the probability of Anthropic's valuation reaching $1.5 trillion this year has risen to 76%, with the stock up 13% in the last 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

PPP forecasting market tools show that in Polymarket's "Anthropic Valuation Reaches Target This Year" prediction event, the probability of reaching $1.5 trillion this year has risen to 76%, an increase of 13% in 24 hours. The probability of reaching $1.25 trillion has risen to 92%, an increase of 8% in 24 hours. According to settlement rules, this market primarily uses the private market valuation of Anthropic published by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) as its basis. If Anthropic completes an IPO or direct listing during this period, the official offering price and its post-listing public market capitalization will also be included in the settlement basis. Currently, NPM data cited on the Polymarket page shows a valuation of approximately $1.13 trillion. Previously, the Wall Street Journal reported that Anthropic planned to go public in September or early October, but the specific offering price and timing have not yet been announced. If successful, it could become one of the largest IPOs in history. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead and seize opportunities.

Since the World Cup ended, Polymarket's weekly trading volume has dropped 56% from its June peak.

Source: 星球日报

According to Odaily Planet Daily, Polymarket saw peak trading volume during the 2026 World Cup, with betting based on match scores, celebrity attendance, and player-related events. Following the World Cup, as of the end of July, the combined weekly trading volume of Polymarket's international and US versions had decreased by 56% from its June record high; Kalshi saw a decrease of approximately 25% during the same period. Polymarket's trading activity declined due to the lack of major sporting events or political events driving user demand.

Bloomberg: Polymarket trading volume drops sharply as World Cup fever subsides.

Source: 区块律动

According to a Bloomberg report on August 12th, the prediction market platform Polymarket experienced a trading boom during the 2026 World Cup, with bets on match scores, celebrity viewing, and player-related events generating significant trading volume. However, as the World Cup concludes and market enthusiasm cools rapidly, Polymarket is facing a "decline."

Polymarket and Kalshi, two major prediction market platforms, saw record trading volumes during the World Cup, but by the end of July, the combined weekly trading volume of Polymarket's international and US versions had fallen by 56% from its all-time high in June. In contrast, Kalshi's volume fell by approximately 25% during the same period.

Bloomberg points out that Polymarket previously engaged in fierce competition with Kalshi in the prediction market space, but the decline in Polymarket's trading activity is intensifying as a lack of major sporting events or political events drive user demand.

On Polymarket, the probability of WTI crude oil breaking through $85/barrel in August briefly fell to 71%, a drop of 13% in one hour.

Source: 星球日报

PPP forecasting market tool monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "WTI crude oil price August target price" prediction event, the probability of breaking through $85/barrel briefly dropped to 71%, a 13% decrease in one hour; the probability of breaking through $90/barrel dropped to 42%, a 7% decrease in one hour; and the probability of breaking through $95/barrel dropped to 25%, a 7% decrease in one hour. Today, the probability of WTI crude oil breaking through $85/barrel in August on Polymarket once surged to 95%, however, the latest news indicates that signals from the US and Iran suggest that the two sides are "close to reaching some kind of arrangement," and the situation is developing in a peaceful direction. Meanwhile, according to Iran's Mehr News Agency, the Pakistani Interior Minister arrived in Tehran for talks. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.

An account purchased $68,000 worth of League of Legends KeSPA Cup DNS defeated HLE

Source: 星球日报

PPP's market prediction tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "League of Legends KeSPA Cup HLE vs. DNS" prediction event, an account with profits exceeding $150,000 (0x7986576408b65a9805ac85553be33ad0b044baa5) purchased $68,000 worth of DNS, predicting a victory for DNS. The average opening price was 68.4¢, with a purchase volume of 100,003.2 shares. Additionally, this address also held $6,000 worth of Game 1 DNS, which also won. The match will begin at 17:00 Beijing time on August 11th, with a best-of-five (BO5) format. It is reported that HLE announced they will field their second team, while DNS will field their first team, causing HLE's overall probability of winning to plummet from 81% to 26%. Join the PPP signal push community to get a head start and seize the opportunity.

Markets anticipate a rise in WTI crude oil prices in August; Gate.io launches "Financial Duet" with a prize pool exceeding 200,000 USDT.

Source: 星球日报

According to data from the Gate Events Contracts platform, regarding the prediction of "WTI crude oil price in August 2026," the probability of crude oil reaching above $85 is as high as 69%, while the probabilities of reaching below $75 and above $90 are 53% and 41% respectively, indicating an overall bullish market expectation. Simultaneously, Gate launched a limited-time "Global Financial Duet" event, running from 18:00 on July 24th to 18:00 on August 28th (UTC+8), linking the Gate stock section and Polymarket, covering financial reports and macroeconomic data highlights. Users who complete weekly stock or financial market prediction trades can receive up to 150 USDT in stock commission rebates and 150 USDT in event contracts trial vouchers. They can also participate in two independent leaderboards for "Stocks" and "Prediction," sharing a weekly prize pool of up to 40,000 USDT, with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. In addition, the event offers multiple bonus benefits, including new user trading gifts, VIP 5+ registration gifts, and a shared trending calendar.

A high-probability Polymarket trader is going long BTC at 20x leverage, anticipating that the Fed will not raise interest rates in September.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on August 11, tradingBeats (formerly Hyperinsight) reported that Polymarket trader "Stable-Armament" currently holds both "No" and "September interest rates unchanged" shares, totaling approximately $51,000, clearly betting that the Fed will not raise interest rates in September.

The aforementioned predicted position is currently valued at approximately $55,300, with a total unrealized profit of approximately $4,321. Historical data shows that "Stable-Armament" has recorded 301 wins and 72 losses in 373 completed predictions on Polymarket, achieving an overall win rate of 80.7% and accumulating profits of approximately $1,133,500.

Meanwhile, its associated Hyperliquid address (0xf00e) is going long 15.7 BTC with 20x leverage, a position value of approximately $1.006 million, which is the account's current main holding; the average entry price was $63,557.1, BTC is currently trading at $63,951, the unrealized profit is approximately $6,196, the return rate is approximately 12.4%, and the liquidation price is $54,828.6.

This trader had previously completed eight rounds of BTC trading on Hyperliquid, with six profitable rounds and two losing rounds, achieving a win rate of 75%; after deducting transaction fees, the net profit was approximately $172,700. The current BTC long position is part of their ninth round of trading.

The on-chain Perp and address analysis tool TradingBeats are now live, supporting real-time viewing of Hyperliquid data, from address tracing to whale operations, providing in-depth analysis and a complete overview.

On Polymarket, the probability of Anthropic's IPO before October 31, 2026, has risen to 63%, a 20% increase in the last 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's market prediction tool, the probability of Anthropic's IPO before October 31, 2026, has risen to 63% on Polymarket, a 20% increase in 24 hours. According to the rules, if Anthropic's stock is publicly listed and open for trading before 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026, the market will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". If Anthropic is acquired by an already listed company before its IPO, the market will settle as "No". The main basis for settlement includes Anthropic's official announcements, SEC documents (such as S-Form 8-A), exchange listing confirmation documents, and related official statements. Market consensus formed by credible media reports can also be considered. Previous news: Anthropic reportedly plans to list in September or early October and is holding pre-IPO meetings with investors. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize the opportunity.

A U.S. Special Forces sergeant first class was suspended in a CFTC civil case involving allegations of trading on non-public information.

Source: 星球日报

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Judge Andrew Carter of the Southern District of New York has ruled to suspend the civil case brought by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) against U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant First Class Gannon Ken Van Dyke, pending the outcome of related criminal cases. Prosecutors filed for a stay in July. Van Dyke is accused of using non-public information to profit more than $400,000 in Polymarket contracts related to the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The U.S. Department of Justice alleges he participated in the movement to overthrow Maduro in January of this year. Both the criminal and civil cases were filed in April. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty to all charges and has applied to dismiss the criminal prosecution; the trial could begin as early as late 2026 or early 2027. (Cointelegraph)

On Polymarket, the probability of the US and Iran holding another round of peace talks before August 31st has dropped to 22%, a 10% decrease in the last 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

PPP forecasting market monitoring shows that the probability of the US and Iran holding the next round of peace talks before August 31st has dropped to 22%, a 10% decrease in 24 hours; the probability of talks before September 30th has dropped to 56%, an 8% decrease in 24 hours. The Iranian Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee has announced the approval of a strategic action plan outline to ensure the security and development of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that he is preparing to increase economic pressure on Iran, saying in a brief phone call: "We're handling this quietly, we're only in a semi-negotiating state. We're just looking at Iran, they're facing severe inflation and a shortage of funds." Trump emphasized that Iran's economy is in "very bad shape" and that it has no money to pay its military salaries. Trump also stated that the US naval blockade has exacerbated Iran's economic crisis. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.

Despite a 40% loss from predicting a US invasion of Iran, trader xm39 is still holding onto a 7 million yuan long position in crude oil.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats , on August 10th, Polymarket trader "xm39" continued to face pressure on his "The US will invade Iran by 2027" Yes bet, with the position now at 1,099,200 contracts, a total cost of approximately $286,200, and an average holding price of 26.03 cents.

The contract is currently trading at 15.5 cents, and its position value has decreased to approximately $170,400, with a floating loss of approximately $115,800, representing a loss of 40.47%. Compared to when it was tracked on August 3, xm39 has since increased its holdings by approximately 161,500 contracts, adding approximately $31,500, widening its floating loss by approximately $53,300; no new market prediction transactions have been observed today.

Meanwhile, xm39 established another long position in crude oil this morning. By noon, it had purchased 88,000 WTI crude oil contracts (CL) through 873 transactions, totaling approximately $6.9127 million, at a price of $78.54 per contract. As of press time, this address held a 20x leveraged position, with a floating profit of approximately $15,700, a return of approximately 4.53%, and a liquidation price of $75.75.

Almost simultaneously with the start of crude oil purchases, xm39 also opened short positions in XYZ100 by 24.31 contracts at an average price of 29,729.68 points, with a trading volume of approximately $722,700. It currently holds a total of 80.28 XYZ100 short positions, with a position value of approximately $2,397,600, an average price of 29,654.27 points, a floating loss of approximately $16,900, and a liquidation price of 32,984.70 points.

The two positions currently have a combined notional value of approximately US$9,325,900. The unrealized gains and losses roughly offset each other, resulting in a net unrealized loss of approximately US$1,258. Additionally, there are 20 buy orders for XYZ100 at 29,388 points, with a notional amount of approximately US$587,800, indicating a plan to reduce existing short positions by approximately 24.9%.

Currently, it continues to bet on US military action against Iran on Polymarket, and has resumed going long on crude oil and shorting Nasdaq-mapped contracts on Hyperliquid, both pointing to a macroeconomic direction of escalating war, stronger oil prices, and pressure on risk assets.

It is reported that none of the trader's 65 closed positions on Polymarket were related to the US-Iran, Iran, or Hormuz markets; in crude oil trading, he had a 4-1 record on 5 long positions, a win rate of 80%; and his only short position yielded a profit of approximately $17,200.

Previous report: Trader "xm39" closed out his positions just in time to avoid the oil price plunge, but then re-established a 10 million yuan long position in crude oil after the "suspension" announcement.

The on-chain Perp and address analysis tool TradingBeats are now live, supporting real-time viewing of Hyperliquid data, from address tracing to whale operations, providing in-depth analysis and a complete overview.

Ground Zero vs. Mindfreak becomes a focus of esports predictions; Gate.com's prediction market tracks the trends of popular events.

Source: 星球日报

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the Counter-Strike 2 (CS2) esports prediction market continues to heat up today, with the Ground Zero vs. Mindfreak match becoming a focal point of prediction trading. According to Gate prediction market data, Ground Zero currently holds a significant advantage with approximately 87% prediction support, while Mindfreak's support is around 14%. Users are showing high interest in this esports match. Gate is launching the "Esports Peak Trading Season" from July 20th 16:00 to August 10th 16:00 (UTC+8), with a total prize pool of 200,000 USDT. After registering, users can participate in prediction trading for designated events in the Gate prediction market's esports section to unlock new user benefits, weekly task rewards, and participate in the esports prediction trading leaderboard. As the first centralized trading platform to integrate with Polymarket, Gate has become a crucial entry point for users to participate in the prediction market. Users can access Gate Polymarket through the Alpha section on the Gate App homepage and conveniently participate in prediction market trading for popular esports events and championship outcomes using their USDT accounts. Users can also leverage the "Smart Money" feature to track the positions and market judgments of high-win-rate traders and obtain more esports event prediction references. Gate is continuously expanding the application scenarios of the prediction market, providing users with a prediction trading experience covering diverse events such as popular esports events.

An account purchased $300,000 worth of League of Legends KeSPA Cup tickets, which saw GENG defeat HLE.

Source: 星球日报

PPP's market prediction tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "League of Legends KeSPA Cup GENG vs. HLE" prediction event, the account Djdjdjekekek (0x6d20c35f65d9899b6d6b74f8466e824580f9a165), which has profited over $1.9 million, purchased $300,000 worth of shares predicting GENG would defeat HLE. The average opening price was 60.4¢, and the number of shares purchased was 488,303.2. The match started at 14:00 Beijing time on August 7th, and the format was BO3. Join the PPP signal push community to get a head start and seize the opportunity.

The probability of the US and Iran reaching a Strait of Hormuz agreement by August 15th, according to Polymarket, has dropped to 11%, a 37% decrease from last week.

Source: 星球日报

PPP forecasting market tool monitoring shows that the probability of the US and Iran reaching a Strait of Hormuz agreement by August 15th has dropped to 11%, a 37% decrease from last week. The probability of reaching an agreement by August 31st has fallen to 26%, a 23% decrease from last week. Currently, negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have once again stalled. According to US officials, a passage management arrangement involving Iran, Oman, and the US in the Strait of Hormuz had been negotiated, but the agreement has been shelved for several days without being announced. As a result, market expectations for an agreement to be reached and for navigation to resume in the short term have further declined. Join the PPP signal push community to get ahead of the curve and seize opportunities.

The probability of the Clarity Act passing this year has dropped to 21%, and the Senate will vote on it for the first time on September 15.

Source: 星球日报

According to data from Polymarket, as reported by Odaily Planet Daily, the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law by December 31st is 21%, with related contract trading volume exceeding $5.5 million as of August 9th. Galaxy Research had previously lowered its expectation of the bill's passage in 2026 from 50% to 30%. The US Senate submitted a motion to end debate on August 8th to advance the bill, but no full Senate vote was held. Senators will return to the Senate on September 14th, and according to procedural rules, the first vote to end debate will be on September 15th. The CLARITY Act aims to delineate the regulatory authority of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over digital assets. Senate negotiations still involve three unresolved issues: ethical enforcement, provisions for illicit financial activities, and stablecoin yields. The bill requires 60 votes to pass and end the obstruction process.

The market predicts a 63% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September.

Source: 星球日报

According to Odaily Planet Daily, market forecasts indicate that the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in September. Polymarket's trading volume exceeded $20.3 million, with a 63% probability of maintaining rates; Kalshi's corresponding probability was 65%, with a trading volume of nearly $4.9 million. CME FedWatch shows a 55.6% probability that the Fed will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% on September 16, and a 44.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. On July 31, CME FedWatch projected a 67% probability of a rate hike. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 7 showed that non-farm payrolls decreased by 23,000 in July, with the unemployment rate at 4.1%. The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged at its July 28-29 meeting, and the next meeting will be held on September 15-16.

There is a 31% probability that Bitcoin will rise to $70,000 this month.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on August 9th, the prediction market platform Polymarket predicted a 31% probability that Bitcoin would rise to $70,000 in August. Additionally, the probability of it rising to $75,000 was 6%, and the probability of it falling to $60,000 was 30%.

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