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Market Trends Trading Insights Data Broadcast New Listing Alert Prediction Market

Polymarket's probability that "GPT-5.6 will open to the public on July 7th" has risen to 64%, a 26% increase in 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP prediction market monitoring tools, the probability of Polymarket's prediction that "GPT-5.6 will be open to the public on July 7th" has risen to 64%, a 26% increase in 24 hours. The rules indicate that GPT-5.6 refers to models explicitly named "GPT-5.6" or those officially recognized as direct successors to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.), all of which meet the settlement criteria. Task-specific models such as GPT-Codex and Transcribe, cost-optimized versions such as Nano and Mini, and o-series inference models are all included in this market; however, GPT-6 or other next-generation flagship models are not included. Furthermore, eligible models must have been made publicly available, including public beta versions or open waiting lists; closed beta or models limited to private access are not eligible. The final settlement will be based primarily on OpenAI's official announcements and publicly available information on its website, combined with verification through mainstream media reports. On June 27th, OpenAI launched its next-generation GPT-5.6 series models, currently available for limited preview to a select group of partners. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before pricing.

Polymarket has listed a new article: "Tesla will launch Robotaxi service in California by December 31st."

Source: 星球日报

PPP's market prediction tool shows that Polymarket has added a new prediction: "Tesla will officially launch its robotaxi service in California by December 31, 2026." If Tesla officially launches an autonomous taxi service in California that requires no continuous human driver intervention by the end of 2026, it is rated "Yes"; otherwise, it is rated "No." Tesla continues to advance its autonomous driving and Robotaxi deployments, but progress varies significantly by region. Currently, it is conducting more aggressive driverless mobility testing and planning in some parts of the US (such as Texas), while in the California market, it is still mainly constrained by a stricter regulatory system. The California DMV and CPUC have set up a multi-stage approval process for the commercial operation of driverless vehicles, involving multiple hurdles such as road test data, remote safety driver requirements, and commercial passenger transport permits. Currently, Tesla in California mainly operates with its supervised self-driving function (FSD supervised) and has not yet obtained a commercial Robotaxi license that allows fully driverless operation. In contrast, its "Cybercab" and Robotaxi commercialization path is widely seen by the market as prioritizing deployment in regions with more relaxed regulations, and progress in California remains highly uncertain. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, anticipating changes before pricing.

Losses exceeding $3 million; top inverse bettor buys $180,000 worth of Senegal's match ended in a winless streak during regular time.

Source: 星球日报

PPP prediction market monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "World Cup Round of 32 Belgium vs. Senegal" prediction event, address 0x224a89db28ac7a407d9c634a6e4c426c428c242f purchased 180,000 units of Senegal's regular match time, predicting they would not win. This address has incurred a total loss of over $3 million, with a loss of $240,000 in the past week. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Smart money made a profit of $620,000 in 9 days and bought $280,000 worth of Bosnia and Herzegovina shares, acquiring a 1.5-goal handicap from the United States.

Source: 星球日报

PPP's prediction market tool monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "World Cup Round of 32 USA vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina" handicap prediction event, the account hot2trot (address: 0xb61b2079b95f6b7476fd3203e0274ffb93308a06) held $272,500 in bets on Bosnia and Herzegovina to receive a 1.5-goal handicap against the USA. This address has a total profit of approximately $628,800, with a profit of approximately $543,100 in the past 7 days. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

A smart money player bought $95,000 worth of League of Legends MSI Play-In Stage bets, which resulted in T1 defeating TL.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's market prediction tool, in the Polymarket prediction event "MSI Play-In Stage T1 vs TL", the smart money account retroactivesource (0x89dd49bf87c41be422927372a0b75c6ab577f662), with a 65.5% prediction win rate, purchased $95,000 worth of shares in favor of T1 defeating TL, with an average opening price of $95. This account also purchased $17,000 worth of shares in favor of T1 winning with a 1.5-point spread against TL and $4,460 worth of shares in favor of T1 winning with a 2.5-point spread against TL. The match will begin on July 1, 2026 at 16:00, and will be a best-of-five (BO5) series. T1 and TL previously faced off once in the first round of the upper bracket of the Play-In Stage (June 28), with T1 winning 3-0. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Polymarket's probability that "Claude Fable 5 will resume service for US customers by July 1st" has risen to 97%, a 71% increase in the last 24 hours.

Source: 星球日报

PPP prediction market monitoring tools show that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 being restored for US clients by July 1st" on Polymarket has risen to 97%, a 71% increase in 24 hours. Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model a few days after its release on June 9th. Latest news indicates that Anthropic has been notified that the US Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 and will begin restoring access. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

PyShield: 40 major security incidents occurred in the crypto industry in June, resulting in losses of $75.87 million, a 7.13% decrease compared to the previous month.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on July 1st, PeckShield reported that in June 2026, the crypto industry experienced 40 major security incidents, resulting in a total loss of approximately $75.87 million, a 7.13% decrease from $81.7 million in May.

The Humanity Protocol attack resulted in approximately $31 million in losses, making it the largest security incident of the month. Attackers transferred and laundered funds across multiple blockchains, including Bitcoin, Solana, Hyperliquid, and BNB Chain, and some of these funds were mixed with those involved in the KelpDAO attack, suggesting a possible connection between the attackers in both incidents.

In addition, Aztec Bridge and Aztec Connect were attacked in the same month, resulting in a combined loss of approximately $4 million.

Other major security incidents include: Syscoin Bridge ($10 million), JaredFromSubway.eth MEV Bot ($7.5 million), Secret Network ($4.67 million), Polymarket users ($3 million), SecondFi ($2.4 million), TESSERA ($2.4 million), Taiko Bridge ($1.7 million), Token of Power ($1.58 million), Raydium ($1.34 million), and LABUBU/OLPC ($1.1 million).

On Polymarket, the probability of "LeBron James staying with his current team" has dropped to 1%, with the Warriors, Cavaliers, and Heat being the most popular destinations.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's prediction market tool, in the Polymarket's multi-option prediction event of "Which team will LeBron James play for next season," the probability of him staying with the Los Angeles Lakers has dropped to 1%, a decrease of over 50% in 24 hours; the probability of him joining the Golden State Warriors has risen to 48%, an increase of 18% in 24 hours; the probability of him joining the Cleveland Cavaliers has risen to 26%, an increase of 16% in 24 hours; and the probability of him joining the Miami Heat has risen to 20%, an increase of 19% in 24 hours. Early this morning, ESPN's Shams Charania reported that James has informed the Los Angeles Lakers of his intention to leave the team. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.

The funding rankings for the first half of 2026 have been released, with Kalshi and Polymarket raising a combined $1.8 billion.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on July 1st, statistics show that the 14 largest funding rounds globally in the first half of 2026 raised a total of $4.3 billion, with prediction markets, AI, and payments being the most favored sectors by investors.

Specifically, prediction market platform Kalshi topped the list with $1.2 billion in funding, while Polymarket raised $600 million, bringing their combined total to $1.8 billion, accounting for over 40% of the top 14 funding rounds.

In the AI field, Replit, Exa AI, and OpenRouter have raised $400 million, $250 million, and $113 million respectively.

In the blockchain sector, Canton Network, Arc, and Morpho raised $355 million, $222 million, and $175 million in funding, respectively.

In addition, payment, RWA, infrastructure, and compliance projects such as Rain, Slash, Goldcom, Alpaca, and Elliptic also made the list.

Investment bank Jefferies: The Clarity Act faces a critical test in the Senate, potentially exacerbating volatility in the crypto market.

Source: 火讯财经

According to a recent report by investment bank Jefferies, the US CLARITY Act still faces significant legislative hurdles in the Senate, and its progress in the coming weeks could exacerbate volatility in the crypto market. Although the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15-9, with only about 20 legislative days remaining before the August congressional recess, it needs to complete bill integration, procedural voting, reconciliation with the House version, and submission to the President for signature—time is tight. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%. Jefferies believes that if the bill passes smoothly, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset management institutions, and exchanges to accelerate their deployment of tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other businesses, thus promoting more…

Jefferies warns: Legislative uncertainty surrounding the CLARITY bill could trigger volatility in the crypto market.

Source: 星球日报

According to a recent report by investment bank Jefferies, the Clarity Act, despite passing the Senate Banking Committee by a 15-9 bipartisan vote, faces significant obstacles in its subsequent legislative process, with political uncertainty potentially exacerbating volatility in the crypto market in the coming weeks. The bill aims to clarify the boundaries of regulation of digital assets by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and is considered a core legislative framework for the US crypto market structure. Jefferies points out that successful passage would significantly increase institutional participation, while delays would prolong regulatory uncertainty. Current Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped to 48%, a significant decrease from 70% in mid-May, mainly due to ethical controversies, anti-money laundering scrutiny, and a tense Senate agenda. Analysts say that Congress has only about 20 legislative days left before its August recess to complete the reconciliation of versions in both the House and Senate, procedural votes, and submission for presidential signature. Failure to advance before the recess could delay the bill into next year, or even further due to the election cycle. Jefferies believes that if the bill is passed, it will drive the expansion of businesses such as tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and crypto ETFs, and benefit the development of markets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). However, if it is delayed, it may inhibit institutional investment in on-chain infrastructure and crypto-related IPOs. Furthermore, the market expects policy uncertainty to continue to impact the stock performance of crypto-related listed companies such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish. Jefferies added that even as regulations become clearer, increased competition in stablecoins may remain a long-term source of pressure for companies like Circle. (CoinDesk)

Jefferies: The Clarity Act faces a critical test in the Senate, potentially exacerbating volatility in the crypto market.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on June 30, investment bank Jefferies stated in its latest report that the U.S. "CLARITY Act" still faces significant legislative obstacles in the Senate, and the progress of related legislation in the coming weeks may exacerbate volatility in the crypto market.

Jefferies points out that although the bill had previously passed the Senate Banking Committee by a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, with only about 20 legislative days left before the August congressional recess, the Senate still needs to complete bill integration, procedural voting, reconciliation with the House version, and submission to the president for signature, making time extremely tight. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%.

Jefferies believes that if the bill passes smoothly, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset management institutions, and exchanges to accelerate their deployment of tokenized assets, custody, staking, and lending businesses, and promoting more IPOs of crypto ETFs and crypto infrastructure companies. If the legislation is delayed, it may prolong regulatory uncertainty, causing traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain business development.

The report anticipates that the progress of the legislation will continue to impact the market performance of crypto-related stocks, including Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH), as well as some crypto assets. Jefferies also points out that, in the long run, compared to regulatory changes, the bigger challenge facing stablecoin issuer Circle remains competition from banks, fintech companies, and payment companies.

A smart money investment of $145,000 resulted in France failing to win the World Cup Round of 32 match.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's market prediction tool, in Polymarket's prediction event of "2026 World Cup Round of 32 France vs. Sweden", the account BreakTheBank (address: 0xf0318c32136c2db7fec88b84869aee6a1106c80c), which had a total profit of nearly $4.47 million, purchased $145,000 worth of shares in the prediction that France would not win. The average opening price was $22, and the number of shares purchased was 618,679.4. The current unrealized profit is $9,280. The knockout stage match between France and Sweden will take place at 5:00 AM Beijing time on July 1st. The French team, valued at over €1.3 billion, boasts top stars like Mbappe and Dembele. They scored 6 goals and conceded only 1 in their two group stage matches, ranking among the top in attacking efficiency among the 32 teams. Sweden has qualified for the World Cup finals 12 times, winning third place twice. Currently, they have young attacking talents like Jocres and Isak, and are on a 12-month unbeaten run. Their last defeat is against France in the first half of 2025, so they don't have a significant psychological disadvantage against France. Odaily Seer continuously monitors and predicts the market, seeing changes before pricing.

A smart money bet $450,000 on a World Cup Round of 32 match, but Norway failed to win.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's market prediction tool, in the Polymarket prediction event for the "2026 World Cup Round of 32 Norway vs. Ivory Coast," the account lighthousefamily (address: 0x987b441a20dd4aa4ba6d53069e852e7f820adf43), with a total profit of nearly $700,000, purchased $450,000 worth of shares betting that Norway would not win. The average opening price was $54.5, and the number of shares purchased was 830,103.9. In addition, this user also held $200,000 worth of shares betting that the match would have fewer than 2.5 goals. The above market data only refers to the results of matches within the first 90 minutes of regular time (including stoppage time). The Norway vs. Ivory Coast knockout match will be held on July 1st at 1:00 AM Beijing time at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, USA. Norway is ranked approximately 23rd in the world. The team's attack relies heavily on individual ability, and they have good physical reserves, but their defense shows weaknesses against strong teams. Ivory Coast, ranked around 30th in the world, is known for its speed, physicality, and attacking prowess. They boast a balanced offense and defense, and their players are resilient under pressure. However, injuries to key positions such as center-back (e.g., Singo) may affect their chances. This match marks the first official encounter between the two teams. The focus will be on Haaland's potential performance and Odegaard's link-up play. If Ivory Coast can limit Norway's attack and capitalize on counter-attacks, they could pose a threat. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

Is Solana's "Celebrity Coin" making a comeback? TJR's market capitalization quickly surpasses $20 million after ANSEM.

Source: 区块律动

According to BlockBeats, on June 30th, GMGN monitoring showed that with the continued influx of funds into the Solana ecosystem's Meme coin ANSEM , its market capitalization reached a new high of $160 million this morning, reigniting the narrative surrounding "celebrity coins" associated with crypto KOLs. The Meme coin TJR, created by the same developer, saw a rapid rise after its launch last night, with its market capitalization briefly exceeding $28 million before falling back to approximately $11 million, with a 24-hour trading volume of $22.2 million.

It is understood that TJR (X: _TJRTrades) is a well-known trader on the X social media platform. He and Ansem interacted and collaborated on live streams around Polymarket from May to mid-June. Since TJR and Ansem are deployed by the same Dev, the market linked the two together and speculated on the matter; coupled with TJR's public replies to the community, his promise of airdrops, and his statement that he had assisted Ansem in operating TikTok and discussed future cooperation directions, the market's FOMO sentiment was further amplified.

BlockBeats Note: Meme coin trading is highly volatile, largely dependent on market sentiment and hype, and has no real value or use cases. Investors should be aware of the risks.

A single address achieved a 93% win rate in World Cup trading on Polymarket, generating $6.2 million in profit over 5 days.

Source: 星球日报

According to Lookonchain monitoring, an address created a new wallet and deposited $1.5 million into Polymarket five days ago, subsequently starting to trade World Cup matches. Currently, its account balance has increased to $7.68 million, with a profit of $6.2 million. The address made 15 bets and won 14, a win rate of 93%.

The US CFTC has launched a broad investigation into Polymarket, covering social media activity and fraudulent transactions.

Source: 星球日报

Odaily Planet Daily reports that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is conducting a broad investigation into prediction market platform Polymarket, covering aspects of its business, including its social media activities. This comes after reports that Polymarket employed dozens of social media creators, primarily college-aged, to produce fake trading videos to attract users. The investigation also covers other aspects of the company's operations. The CFTC and the Department of Justice concluded their investigation last year into whether Polymarket violated a ban on U.S. users, but some U.S. users still bypassed the ban by using VPNs and other methods to access its main platform. Since reaching a settlement with the CFTC in 2022, Polymarket has technically banned U.S. users from using its main platform, but the company is taking steps to reinstate its main exchange in the U.S. and is working with the CFTC to lift the ban.

Brazil vs. Japan kicks off in four and a half hours, and surprisingly, smart money widely predicts Brazil will not win in regulation time.

Source: 星球日报

PPP pre-match position analysis shows a clear bias in the Polymarket World Cup "Brazil vs. Japan" prediction event regarding whether Brazil would win. Of the top five addresses that predicted Brazil would win in regulation time, only one had a positive total profit, while the top five addresses suffered a total loss of $4.49 million. Conversely, addresses that predicted a Brazil defeat profited a total of $15.38 million.

A smart money investment of $116,000 led to the Netherlands defeating Morocco in the World Cup Round of 32.

Source: 星球日报

PPP's market prediction tool monitoring shows that in Polymarket's "2026 World Cup Round of 32 Netherlands vs. Morocco" prediction event, Smart Money (address: 0x0c787cc2962ee6464414da592b892c3886e077f1) with a total profit exceeding $229,000, purchased $116,000 worth of shares predicting the Netherlands would defeat Morocco. The average opening price was $43, with 274,653.6 shares purchased. Currently, there is a floating loss of $1,373. The Round of 32 match between the Netherlands, the uncrowned kings, and Morocco, the Africa Cup of Nations champions, will kick off on June 30th at 9:00 AM Beijing time. Morocco has just risen to 6th in the FIFA rankings, one place higher than the Netherlands. This World Cup, the Netherlands has been described as an "attack-strong, defense-weak version of the Tulips," while Morocco is described as an "upgraded version of the Atlas Lions." This match is full of suspense. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

A smart money player bought $160,000 worth of World Cup Round of 32 tickets, but Brazil failed to win.

Source: 星球日报

According to PPP's market prediction tool, in the Polymarket prediction event "2026 World Cup Round of 32 Brazil vs. Japan," the account ChinesePro (address: 0x37e053beabee77acc15e641dfe8e395b2b2d024e), with a total profit exceeding $620,000, purchased $168,000 worth of shares betting that Brazil would not win, with an average opening price of $42 and a purchase volume of 399,993.5 shares. This market only refers to the results of matches within the first 90 minutes of regular match time (including stoppage time). In addition, this user also holds $100,000 worth of shares betting that the Brazil-Japan score will not be 2-1 and $18,000 worth of shares betting that the Brazil-Japan score will not be 2-2. The Brazil vs. Japan knockout match will be held on June 30th at 1:00 AM Beijing time at NRG Stadium in Houston, USA. Brazil, as a five-time champion, is one of the favorites to win the World Cup, while Japan, a strong Asian team, defeated Brazil in a friendly match in 2025 and may be able to cause an upset. Odaily Seer continuously focuses on the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.

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