Are 'Uptober' Bets Still Intact After Friday's Historic Crash?
In the wake of Friday’s historic flash crash, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s surprise social media post with plans of additional 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, leading to nearly $19 billion in liquidations, the crypto market has experienced a significant rebound since Sunday.
While cryptocurrencies saw about $850 billion wiped out in the crash, the market cap has already seen a recovery of around $350 billion since Sunday.
Bitcoin is spearheading the resurgence, climbing more than 5% to above $115,000. The token had plunged below $105,000 on Friday in a deep sell-off across the market.
Ethereum and other major cryptos are also experiencing recoveries in the range of 10% to 20%.
The second-largest crypto token has recovered to above $4,100, gaining about 20% from its Friday lows of $3,500.
Data from Coinglass reveals that an astonishing 1.6 million crypto traders faced liquidation on Friday, resulting in a total of $19.1 billion in liquidations in positions.
That is the highest liquidations on record, with the previous biggest single-day liquidations being less than $2 billion during the COVID and FTX collapse selloffs.
Macro headlines than cryptocurrency-specific issues, drove Friday's steep decline.
After market hours, Washington responded to Beijing's new export limits on rare-earth minerals by announcing plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports.
The bloodbath came amidst the thin weekend liquidity, resulting in billions in forced liquidations.
Cryptos Jump After Trump’s Calming Words
The recovery observed since then can be attributed to several mechanical factors: leverage has been reduced, cascading effects have been stabilized, and the market appears relatively unconcerned about the potential implementation of tariffs.
Prediction markets such as Polymarket are currently assigning only a 15% probability that the tariffs will be implemented on November 1, 2025.
A remarkably measured message from President Trump is a major factor in the reversal, with the "TACO" trade playing out in full display.
The TACO trade refers to the "Trump Always Chickens Out" market bet. Throughout his second term, Trump has repeatedly issued aggressive threats only to walk them back once financial markets react.
In a Truth Social post, the President wrote, "Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine!"
That indicated a softer approach towards China following the recent tariff surprise. This shift in sentiment alleviated worldwide concerns and instilled renewed confidence among stakeholders.
Market participants swiftly began to capitalize on the recent price decline by buying the dips and operating under the assumption that the most challenging aspects of the trade war may now be in the rearview mirror.
Institutional Investors Step Back In
The resurgence is being bolstered by robust institutional interest. Grayscale has recently submitted a proposal to establish a Bittensor Trust, with the goal of drawing in significant investors interested in AI-related cryptocurrency assets.
In a significant move towards broader acceptance, Morgan Stanley has broadened Bitcoin access for its entire wealth client base. These actions suggest that substantial funds continue to flow into the crypto space, reinforcing the market's stability.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to be a significant driver of bullish sentiment.
In light of recent market fluctuations, substantial institutional investments have persisted, as evidenced by BlackRock’s IBIT ETF now securing a position among the top 20 US ETFs in terms of assets under management, surpassing the $90 billion threshold.
AltCoins' Bounce Back Faster Than Top Tokens
Bitcoin is not the sole asset experiencing a rebound; alternative cryptocurrencies, known as altcoins, are also driving the resurgence.
XRP, Solana, BNB, and Dogecoin have experienced gains ranging from 10% to 20%.
A significant number of market participants are convinced that the recent downturn has driven prices down excessively, prompting a swift return as technical signals like the RSI show an upward trend, indicating a potential market turnaround.
Recent on-chain data indicate an increase in whale accumulation alongside a decline in negative funding rates, reinforcing the optimistic outlook for potential gains in the near future.
Traders see their current prices as a buying opportunity after being oversold last week.
"Uptober" Trend Still at Play
Adjustments to leverage and a decrease in tariff fears are propelling market recovery, which is turning last weekend's fear into a renewed desire for risk and the reemergence of liquidity.
The 'Uptober' trend is still going strong as investors fearlessly buy on the drop, even if the market was volatile over the weekend.
To find out if Bitcoin's recent surge can create significant bullish momentum, market players are keeping a tight eye on tariffs, trendlines, and the dollar's strength.
To forecast the market's upcoming trends, market participants are closely monitoring key macroeconomic indicators, including the upcoming US CPI report, the Federal Reserve meeting, and the dynamics of institutional ETF flows.
The latest upswing is supported by on-chain data showing that major holders are boosting their holdings in assets like Ethereum, while technical signs point to a confirmed market bottom for a number of underappreciated altcoins.
Still, the Friday 'trauma' may continue to be a significant obstacle for numerous market players due to the magnitude of the liquidations, which are the biggest in cryptocurrency's history.
The US-China trade war has made traders extremely vulnerable to macro tape bombs.
Crypto Whales' Bets
After Trump's tariff announcements caused a broad market decline and subsequent recovery, the crypto market saw a substantial uptick in activity from major investors who moved swiftly.
In order to profit from the changes, market participants took up large leveraged bets.
Some people made a lot of money while others lost a lot of money. To readjust their holdings, many whales strategically entered or left the market throughout the period of volatility.
The current market climate is defined by quick reactions and daring risk tolerance, as shown by the uptick in whale activity.
Amid the recovery since Sunday, there was a notable increase in derivatives trading. A number of large players recalibrated their holdings to capitalize on the evolving market landscape.
On-chain data provided by Lookonchain indicates that an advisor to World Liberty Financial has made a deposit of 1 million USDC into Hyperliquid. The individual initiated a leveraged long position of 20 times on 125.7 Bitcoin, amounting to approximately $14.3 million in value.
The trader opened a fresh position once the market recovered; it was a 3x long on 850,000 ASTER, with a value of almost $1.25 million.
Separately, another major Bitcoin whale closed 90% of his Bitcoin short and fully exited his Ethereum short, earning an estimated $190–$200 million profit in a single day. Not long after, he reshorted 1,423 BTC worth roughly $161 million.
Hypurrscan data showed that the trader is currently sitting at an unrealized profit of over $3 million on this position.
The trader behind wallet 0xb9fe experienced the other side of the volatility. During the sell-off, he was completely liquidated and lost around $2 million.
Yet only hours later, he returned with 9.5 million USDC and opened a 25x long position on 18,960 ETH worth around $72.7 million.
During the recovery period, two more notable traders were brought to light by an on-chain specialist. The latest update shows the long positions in ETH and Solana held by Address 0x728 still represent a floating gain of almost $1.56 million.
An unsuccessful ETH long position cost the same wallet $4.74 million earlier. The trader 0xe9d also took a more measured approach, selling down a $265,000 long position in bitcoin during the night.
In another development, wallet 0x5D2F, which had maintained a losing position on BTC for almost five months, finally experienced a turnaround during the market crash — transforming a $27 million loss into a momentary profit. The investment went back to a loss, down about $4.8 million, when prices rose again.
Along with Bitcoin and Ethereum, a wallet linked to 1kx Network co-founder Christopher Heymann has also returned to the market.
The client put $2 million USDC into Hyperliquid and started a long position on ENA with a leverage of 10x. This very wallet had previously deposited $4.22 million; however, it was about to be liquidated due to the market crash.
Spot Market Moves
Spot market activity garnered attention comparable to that of derivatives trading. An institutional wallet, 0x395, transferred 15,010 ETH - approximately $57.31 million - to exchanges on Sunday, as reported by an onchain expert. The investor is positioned to realize approximately $11.87 million if these assets are liquidated.
A collective of hackers reportedly liquidated 8,638 ETH valued at $32.5 million at a price of $3,764 amid the market downturn, incurring a loss of approximately $5.5 million, as per Lookonchain's analysis.
The situation involved a costly decision to purchase at a peak after previously selling at a low point. They acquired 7,816 ETH, valued at approximately $32.5 million, as the market rebounded, but this time at an elevated price of $4,159.
The weekend's fluctuations highlighted a significant disparity among key participants — with certain large investors securing gains while others hurried to rebuild their positions.
What Technical Analyses Show?
TradingView's BTCUSD technical analysis gauge, which is based on the most popular technical indicators, such as moving averages, oscillators, and pivots, gave a buy signal for the week ahead.
However, short-term gauge measured by various indicators under oscillators showed a sell sign even as long-term measures under moving averages pointed to a strong buy bet.
Within the Oscillators indicators, Momentum (10) and MACD Level (12, 26) measures gave a sell signal, while the rest showed a neutral bet.
Under long-term gauges, only the Hull moving average (9) showed a negative reading.
Separately, InvestTech's Algorithmic Overall Analysis showed a positive score.
However, InvestTech's one to six weeks' recommendation showed hold.
InvestTech said, "Bitcoin is within an approximate horizontal trend channel in the short term, which indicates further development in the same direction.
The token is between support at points $113,400 and resistance at points $115,600. A definitive breakthrough of one of these levels predicts the new direction."
The firm added, "The crypto is assessed as technically neutral for the short term."
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