According to BlockBeats, on August 25, JPMorgan Chase warned that although US stocks are still in an uptrend and are close to historical highs, there are risk signals such as sector divergence and increased technical resistance in the market. Coupled with the seasonal weakness from August to October, investors may consider moderately reducing their stock positions, but there is no need for aggressive risk aversion at the moment.

JPMorgan technical strategist Jason Hunter stated that while the S&P 500 has not yet shown clear signs of a top, the market's internal structure is changing. The bank recommends continuing with trend-following stop-loss strategies and indicated that if the current market environment persists, it may consider further reducing equity exposure before early September.

Historical data shows that August to October is typically a period of weak performance for US stocks. Bank of America data shows that since 1928, the S&P 500's average return during this period has been approximately -0.02%; Goldman Sachs data shows that since 1974, the median return of the S&P 500 from early August to Election Day in midterm election years has been 0%.

"The AI sector is a key source of risk for JPMorgan Chase." The bank believes that the divergence in performance between AI hardware companies and large cloud computing companies bears some resemblance to the characteristics of the capital expenditure cycle for communication equipment before its peak during the dot-com bubble of 2000. Recent weakness in chip stocks such as Nvidia, Micron, and Broadcom has further exacerbated market concerns.

Investors are awaiting Nvidia's earnings report to determine whether AI infrastructure investments can continue to support high valuations. Furthermore, policy headwinds stemming from data center energy demand could pose a new risk to AI deals.

Despite warnings, JPMorgan Chase remains optimistic about the long-term outlook for US stocks and has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,000 points. In the short term, Nvidia's earnings report, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, and PCE inflation data will be key variables determining the market's direction in September.

According to BlockBeats, on August 25, a joint statement between Iran and Oman stated: "His Excellency Omani Foreign Minister Bousaidi, during a working visit to Iran, held constructive consultations with Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi. The consultations focused on an issue of great importance to both countries: the restoration of safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while upholding their respective sovereignty and sovereign rights."

In light of the recent war and its disastrous consequences, which have altered the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the two foreign ministers discussed a phased framework that could provide a practical and implementable foundation for moving the situation forward. The proposed framework includes establishing a temporary joint maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz and agreeing to implement a joint mine clearance project.

Both sides will continue technical discussions with the aim of reaching an agreement on establishing a permanent maritime passage, future management of the strait, and mechanisms for exchanging traffic management information and providing related maritime and security services. In this regard, both sides emphasized the need for joint dialogue with the Persian Gulf littoral states. At the same time, both sides stressed the necessity of adhering to applicable international law and respecting the sovereign rights of the littoral states.

As a result, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by $0.80 in the short term. WTI crude oil is currently down 3.88% at $81.27 per barrel, while Brent crude oil has fallen back below $87 per barrel, down 3.88% on the day.

According to BlockBeats, on August 25th, Bitcoin surged to $81,265 on Tuesday before retreating, falling as low as $78,111, once again breaching the $80,000 mark. Gold also weakened in tandem, with spot gold falling nearly 2% to $4,605 per ounce, after previously rising to $4,697, a new high since mid-May.

Market trends show that the decline in US Treasury yields failed to further drive up Bitcoin and gold prices; instead, a divergence emerged, with US stocks strengthening while cryptocurrencies and gold weakened. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%; meanwhile, the yield on the 30-year US Treasury note fell below 5.2%, approaching its lowest level since August 7.

Analysts believe that recent changes in US Treasury yields remain a significant driver of the cryptocurrency market. The US Treasury previously expanded its long-term Treasury repurchase program to alleviate upward pressure on long-term yields, but in the current inflationary environment, the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts remains limited.

The market currently estimates a 61.9% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September. In the short term, market focus is shifting from US Treasury bonds to the US July PCE inflation data and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Nvidia's earnings report, due after the market closes on Wednesday, could also be a new catalyst for volatility in risk assets.