分析师：比特币波动率压缩至3.8%，大幅波动或一触即发

PANews2026-08-12 07:30:00

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PANews 8月12日消息，CryptoQuant分析师Axel Adler Jr.发文表示，比特币波动率已压缩至3.8%，为近两年最低水平之一，布林带宽度（BBR）在7月初仍处于双位数区间，现已大幅收窄。衡量趋势强度的ADX指标降至11，接近近年最低，市场处于窄幅盘整状态，无明确方向。从历史来看，这种极低波动的状态通常不会持续太久，后续往往会伴随一波较大幅度的行情，但方向未知。

分析师指出，ADX远低于识别活跃趋势的25阈值，无活跃看涨或看跌信号。市场要脱离盘整，需布林带宽度（BBR）从压缩中扩张，同时ADX升至25以上，并出现明确的方向信号，在此之前假突破风险持续存在。

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