@basedguston "ETH" was mentioned twice in the above post. Maybe Ctrl+F before criticizing?

Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop. I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized s

> Crypto prices, sports, short-term events - this isnt a "corrupted version" of markets. Its a way to bring in people, money and liquidity. Without these markets you just wont get proper depth, tight spreads and the habit of participating. You cant start straight away with hedging and complex decision markets - nobody will show up. This isnt a bug, its a growth stage I used to be more open to these kinds of arguments, but more recently I am more inclined to think that they are usually galaxy brain self-justification https://t.co/iJYPFNaOgg For every product that has had this justification and successfully transitioned to the mature stage, there are over ten where the corposlop stage was the only product-market fit they would ever get, and the idea that that's only a transition period was used as an excuse to keep idealistic employees from quitting and shield against negative PR. Similar to socialism -> communism: the idea that dictatorship of the proletariat is only a "transition sta

Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful as a supplement to other forms of news media. But also, they seem to be over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit: embracing short-term cryptocurrency price bets, sports betting, and other similar things that have dopamine value but not any kind of long-term fulfillment or societal information value. My guess is that teams feel motivated to capitulate to these things because they bring in large revenue during a bear market where people are desperate - an understandable motive, but one that leads to corposlop. I have been thinking about how we can help get prediction markets out of this rut. My current view is that we should try harder to push them into a totally different use case: hedging, in a very generalized s

@BethGreenberet Yeah, and the past predicts the future, right?RIGHT???

@tayvano_ We don’t have a ZachXBT in Korea 😢 Having him in yours is such a blessing. The US is an interesting country. People combine strong freedom with strong deterrence.

@justinskycak Idiocracy

@a16z @KTmBoyle @WSJ ❤️

@cstanley Cool

RT @AquaBitcoin: AQUA fixes this.

🇺🇸 U.S. gov has seized 198,000 BTC and lost 0 BTC. 🇰🇷 Korean gov has seized 2,333 BTC and lost 1,742 BTC. In every investigation, someone accessed the private keys and took the funds. Who do you think it was? 😏

In the age of AI, if criminals really wanted to, government ID or even any type of identification can be spoofed. Buy Bitcoin.

@iliketeslas ❤️