Bitcoin’s Christmas Present Setup Bitcoin is trading around $89K–$90K, quietly compressing volatility after the October peak near $126K. This calm is not organic. It is mechanical. A massive December 26 options expiry is acting like a lid on price. What’s Happening Now • Large call open interest sits at $100K–$118K, with a dominant wall at $100K. • Put support clusters around $85K–$90K. • Dealers hedge this exposure by selling rallies and buying dips. • The result is a narrow range and suppressed volatility into expiry. This is not distribution. It is pinning. The Christmas Catalyst: On December 26, a large share of options gamma expires. When that happens: • Dealer hedges roll off. • The artificial price gravity disappears. • Volatility returns quickly. Historically, this is when Bitcoin moves. Likely Outcomes After Christmas Upside Gift (Higher Probability) If spot holds above ~$90K and breaks $100K with volume: • Dealers must buy to hedge short calls. • Price acceleration follows. • Targets: $100K → $110K–$112K, with upside extension if momentum feeds itself. Why This Matters Before expiry, Bitcoin looks weak and boring. After expiry, structure changes. This is a textbook setup: volatility suppressed by design, then released by the calendar. The Takeaway Bitcoin’s Christmas present is not a price today. It is the removal of the force holding price still. Once the wrapping comes off, movement follows.