XRP Risk Metrics Suggest Top Not Reached Yet as 1-Year Holders Enjoy 5.16x ROI

Recent data has highlighted the jaw-dropping portfolio upside an investor would record if he held XRP over the past year. XRP trended lower over the past few weeks, consolidating considerably from its July peak of $3.66. It dropped to $2.82 two days ago before yesterday’s 5.4% growth ensured it reclaimed the $3 support. Yet, zooming out shows that, despite the volatility, XRP has been substantially profitable to holders. A recent analysis highlighted that holding XRP for the past year has yielded a massive return on investment. XRP Investors One Year Ago Up 5.168x Benjamin Cowen shared data from Into The Cryptoverse, which measured the ROI for holding XRP for 365 days. It identified the historic rise in holder profitability on a one-year scale alongside its price movement. An attached chart highlights a green horizontal line, indicating an ROI of 1. A trend above it underscores that the long-term holders are in profit, while below shows they are in a loss. Specifically, the chart shows that the latest ROI multiplier stands at 5.168, indicating that those who acquired XRP one year ago have seen a 5.168 times return on investment. Notably, the staggering gains stem from the XRP rally from $0.50 in November to $3.66 last month before the ongoing retracement. For perspective, XRP opened at $0.58 on August 27, 2024. At the current market price of $3.00, this represents an exact 5.173x, or 417%, increase. The jaw-dropping upside indicates the benefits of holding XRP on a long-term basis. Cowen also shared in a separate post that the 365-day running ROI for Ethereum holders is at 1.854x, which is less than a twofold increase or 100%. The contrast in gains highlights that XRP has been more profitable to hold over the past year than Ethereum despite the latter's recent bullish push.

Interestingly, early XRP adopters have experienced higher returns on their portfolios. In 2017, XRP holders saw over a 100 times portfolio upside when its price rose to its current all-time high of $3.84. Another period of explosive gains was observed in 2021, when investors who held for one year experienced over 10x rallies in their portfolio. However, a dip below breakeven occurred during the 2022 and 2023 bear season. XRP Risk Metrics Suggests Top Not Yet In Meanwhile, Cowen also shared the XRP historical risk level chart in a parallel tweet , which shows the token’s risk relative to its price. The metric, gauged between 0 and 1, highlights the current market condition, providing insight for investors looking to know when to buy or sell. An extreme risk level (closer to 1) typically indicates a market top, while a low risk level (closer to 0) suggests a market bottom or consolidation. For perspective, XRP peaked and retraced in all instances when the risk level reached 1, as seen between 2013 and 2021.

XRP peaked at $0.0614 in December 2013 and $0.0280 a year later when the metric reached 1. A similar event happened at $0.3989 in May 2017, at $3.84 in January 2018, and at $1.9690 in April 2021. Meanwhile, although the current risk value of 0.737 is closer to the extremely risky level, it remains well below 1. This suggests that XRP could still see further upside, and its price would not correct extensively, as seen in previous instances, unless spurred by external factors.