ETH Breaks Out, BTC Confirms – Rotation Pays Off Again

Asset	Positioning Transition	4 July Price	Weekly High	11 July Price	Change	Verdict
BTC	65% → 60% → 65%	$108,860	$118,000	$117,700	+8.1%	✅ Trimmed into strength, captured breakout cleanly
ETH	15% → 20% → 10%	$2,550	$2,975	$2,975	+16.7%	✅ Maintained high exposure as it outperformed the market
SOL	10% → 5% → 5%	$151	$164	$1 64	+8.6%	⚠️ Missed early upside but remained exposed

✅ What We Got Right

➕ Ethereum Overweight as It Outperformed the Market
We increased ETH exposure into strength, capturing its double-digit move driven by institutional flows and record ETF inflows.

➕ Maintained Core BTC Anchor Through Rotation
We held a strong BTC position throughout the week. As Bitcoin broke to new highs on historic inflows, our anchor allocation delivered.

➕ Managed Volatility by Keeping Cash for Potential Downturns
A 10% average cash pocket provided the flexibility to trim and rebalance without missing major moves, especially as leverage risks increased late week.

❌ What We Got Wrong

❌ Overweighing Solana as It Ended Up Lagging
Despite strong ETF narratives, SOL underperformed BTC and ETH. Our overweight limited total portfolio outperformance relative to a major-only allocation.

❌ Keeping Cash Led to Slight Underperformance
While prudent for risk management, our average 10% cash allocation slightly reduced overall gains during an otherwise breakout week.

? Key Lessons

? ETF Inflows Drive Price More Than Fundamentals
ETH’s rally came right after its second-best ETF inflow day ever. BTC’s $1.175B daily inflow also confirmed price follows flows—not narratives.

? Corporate & Treasury Buys Set Structural Floors
MetaPlanet, Strategy, and others continue to absorb supply faster than miners can generate it. This makes dips increasingly shallow and short-lived.

♻️ Rotational Agility Beats Prediction
Scaling into ETH early, trimming near highs, and holding BTC proved more effective than anticipating single-asset dominance. Speed matters.

? Final Takeaway

Ethereum’s breakout led the week, followed by Bitcoin’s clean ATH surge. While Solana lagged majors, our rotation and cash management helped us outperform without overextending. We stay exposed but cautious heading into a potentially volatile weekend.

Understanding Our Benchmark and Positioning Terms

Our benchmark is a market-cap weighted index composed of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) — the three most widely held and institutionally tracked assets in the space. Weightings are determined based on each asset’s relative market capitalization at the start of the review period.

When we refer to “neutral weight,” we mean a position aligned with the benchmark weight. An “overweight” position indicates we hold a larger allocation to that asset than its benchmark weight, reflecting higher conviction or expected outperformance. Conversely, an “underweight” position means our allocation is below the benchmark weight, typically due to near-term risks or weaker conviction.