Bitcoin On-Chain Momentum Signals Start of a New Rally: 3 Big Scenarios Ahead

A recent CryptoQuant analysis reveals that Bitcoin has reached an essential moment in its economic cycle. On April 29, 2025, the on-chain momentum ratio of Bitcoin reached 0.8, positioning it at the start of its rally phase. The ratio is calculated using the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) indicators, which show how much profit investors have and the potential for market changes.

The CryptoQuant team developed three distinct Bitcoin market predictions, spanning from extreme upward growth to flat price movements and downward movements expected in the upcoming half-year period.

Scenario 1: Optimistic (Bullish Breakout)

A bullish outlook unfolds when the momentum ratio successfully surpasses 1.0 and maintains this position. The market data shows rising voter confidence from retail and institutional investors who are behaving similarly to earlier market upruns in 2017 and 2021. Under this rate of growth, Bitcoin might hit $150K–$175K while setting a new all-time high, which confirms its role as digital gold during uncertain economic times.

Scenario 2: Base Case (Sideways Consolidation)

Based upon this indicator stabilizing between 0.8 and 1.0, the market should experience a phase of price stabilization, which would keep Bitcoin trading within the $90K-$110K range. The market will maintain its holdings without noticeable long-term purchasing activities. The resulting base-building period happens often before significant price movements as investors spend time observing how macroeconomic events and governmental regulations affect the market.

Scenario 3: Pessimistic (Market Correction)

A downward shift of the momentum ratio below 0.75 will likely prompt short-term traders to sell their positions, thus causing a market correction. The reduction of Bitcoin price might extend to between $70K and $85K. CryptoQuant deems the possible market correction less likely because on-chain fundamentals remain strong while the market has already absorbed its recent correction.

What This Means for Investors

When the rally zone entry point activates, investors start to show progressively more positive market behavior. The historical data shows that whenever momentum movement reaches its critical points, it signals Bitcoin price will experience sudden price adjustments.

The upcoming weeks will likely shape the market direction for the remainder of 2025 irrespective of how the market evolves. Watchful investors monitor this situation closely since the crypto market’s momentum tends to change rapidly.