Market Analysis and Trading Recommendations for August 17th

* The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 66.9%, while the probability of a rate hike is 33.1%, with hawkish expectations suppressing risk assets. * Trump ordered a reduction in the scale of US-South Korea military exercises, easing geopolitical tensions, but with limited positive impact. * The total liquidation amount in the past 24 hours was only $7.448 million, with short liquidation accounting for 67%, indicating a slight short squeeze, but the total amount is extremely small, and the direction remains unclear. --- Bitcoin Strategy * Range Trading: Resistance at 63,300–63,500, support at 62,500–62,800. Buy low and sell high before a breakout with volume, with a stop loss of 300 points for each level. * Breakout Follow-up: A hold above 63,500 targets 64,000; a break below 62,500 could lead to a test of 61,800. * The accumulation indicator is at 0.5057, close to the bottoming range. Long-term positions can be built in batches, but short-term positions should wait for a clear signal. Ethereum Strategy • Key Levels: 1,890–1,900 (20-day EMA) on the upside, 1,860–1,865 (50-day EMA) on the downside. Wait for a breakout from this range before making a directional judgment. • Relative Strength: ETH/BTC is around 0.0299, below 0.03. Ethereum is currently weaker than Bitcoin in the short term. Be cautious when going long; prioritize using BTC as a reference.