Pay attention to the impact of tonight's 20:30 CPI data.

Last week's strategy returns. Focusing on intraday short-term trading, those who want to copy my trades can check my profile QQ. There's no threshold for copying; every trade is live-streamed with a win rate of over 90%. Tonight's CPI core forecast: The market generally expects June's overall CPI to decrease by 0.1% month-on-month (previous value +0.5%), with an annual rate of 3.8%; core CPI to increase by 0.2% month-on-month, with an annual rate of 2.8%. This will be the first time since 2020 that the overall CPI has turned negative month-on-month, mainly due to the sharp drop in gasoline prices. However, core inflation remains a focus for the Federal Reserve, and is expected to remain at 2.8%-2.9%, far above the 2% target. Three scenarios and their impact on the crypto market: Scenario 1: Core CPI is lower than expected (monthly rate <0.15%), with a probability of about 25-30%. This eases concerns about interest rate hikes, weakens the dollar, and increases risk appetite. BTC is expected to rebound quickly to $64,000-$65,000, and institutional funds may reverse recent net outflows. Scenario 2: Core CPI meets expectations (monthly rate 0.20%-0.25%), with a probability of approximately 40-50%. This is the most likely scenario, indicating a steady decline in inflation, but core CPI stickiness remains, leaving the market direction unclear after digestion. BTC will likely fluctuate between $61,000 and $63,000, with subsequent movements depending on Warsh's testimony at the congressional hearing. · Scenario 3: Core CPI exceeds expectations (monthly rate > 0.30%), with a probability of approximately 20-25%. Interest rate hike expectations surge (potentially exceeding 60%), strengthening the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, which is the most negative factor for crypto. BTC may test $60,000 or even lower, with even greater pressure if the Middle East situation and rising oil prices are combined. After tonight's CPI release, Fed Chairman Warsh will testify before Congress, and his remarks may have a greater impact than the data itself. Meanwhile, the Middle East situation and the rebound in oil prices may offset the positive impact of the CPI, leaving medium- to long-term structural inflation at high levels.