According to BlockBeats, on June 30, investment bank Jefferies stated in its latest report that the U.S. "CLARITY Act" still faces significant legislative obstacles in the Senate, and the progress of related legislation in the coming weeks may exacerbate volatility in the crypto market.
Jefferies points out that although the bill had previously passed the Senate Banking Committee by a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, with only about 20 legislative days left before the August congressional recess, the Senate still needs to complete bill integration, procedural voting, reconciliation with the House version, and submission to the president for signature, making time extremely tight. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%.
Jefferies believes that if the bill passes smoothly, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset management institutions, and exchanges to accelerate their deployment of tokenized assets, custody, staking, and lending businesses, and promoting more IPOs of crypto ETFs and crypto infrastructure companies. If the legislation is delayed, it may prolong regulatory uncertainty, causing traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain business development.
The report anticipates that the progress of the legislation will continue to impact the market performance of crypto-related stocks, including Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH), as well as some crypto assets. Jefferies also points out that, in the long run, compared to regulatory changes, the bigger challenge facing stablecoin issuer Circle remains competition from banks, fintech companies, and payment companies.