Polymarket rates the probability of Kylian Mbappé winning the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot at 18%, ranking it first.

According to Odaily Seer's monitoring, the probability of Kylian Mbappé winning the 2026 World Cup Golden Boot on Polymarket is currently 18%, ranking first; Harry Kane's probability is 14%, ranking second; Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi have lower probabilities, currently at 5% and 4% respectively. The contract rules for this event state that the player with the most goals in all competition stages will be the final winner. In case of a tie, the official ranking as determined by FIFA rules will be used; if FIFA announces multiple players, the player with fewer penalty kick goals will be selected; if a tie still exists, the player ranked first in alphabetical order of their surname will be chosen. If the World Cup is cancelled, or if no winner is determined by 11:59 PM Eastern Time on August 2, 2026, the result will be classified as "Other". The final result will be based on the official information released by FIFA, and may also consider market consensus formed by credible media reports if necessary. Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.