A smart money firm purchased $200,000 worth of stock that claimed the US and Iran would formally reach a permanent peace agreement by June 8, 2026.

According to Odaily Seer, a channel monitoring the market, a "smart money" account (address: 0x59c49a09e5335430833b96d96af9e581b0a9b517) with a win rate exceeding 71% in Polymarket's prediction event "When will the US and Iran formally reach a permanent peace agreement?", purchased $200,000, betting that the US and Iran would formally reach a permanent peace agreement before 11:59 PM ET on June 7, 2026, with an average opening price of 91.4¢. The US and Iran continue indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan and Oman. Discussions cover key issues including restrictions on Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile program, the resumption of commercial traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, and the disposal of highly enriched uranium. Reports indicate that the two sides reached a preliminary consensus in late May on a 60-day memorandum framework for extending the ceasefire and initiating further negotiations. However, US President Trump has instructed the negotiating team not to rush into an agreement, while Iran has stated that significant progress has been made in the negotiations, but a comprehensive agreement is still far off. The two sides have been exchanging proposals recently, while changes in the regional situation have added uncertainty to the negotiations, and the timeline for reaching a permanent solution remains unclear. Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing them in.