Celery: Kevin Warsh's Inauguration, Bitcoin Price Trend Prediction [5-22 19:15]

The newly appointed Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, will hold his inauguration ceremony tonight at 23:00 Beijing time. Who is Kevin Warsh? First, he is a very typical hawk and a believer in monetarism. His core argument can be summarized in one sentence: the Fed's balance sheet is too large and must be reduced. Reducing the balance sheet means decreasing liquidity, leading to higher US Treasury yields, which directly puts downward pressure on risky assets like US stocks and cryptocurrencies. This is one of the reasons I've been writing about in recent days for my bearish outlook in the medium term. So what should we watch in the market tonight? The inauguration ceremony is at 11 PM, and the market's true reaction will only emerge after that. Currently, there is strong support at 75,000. As long as this level holds, the rebound structure remains intact; otherwise, it will directly target 72,000. This is the watershed for trading tonight. My view is that short-term positive news will be released tonight to appease Trump and boost market confidence. Therefore, in terms of trading strategy, we maintain yesterday's view: initiate a long position at 77200, and add to the position at 76000. Given the news-driven market conditions, the stop-loss should be placed at 75000. The immediate upside target is 80000-81500 USD. Although there is minor resistance at 78500, this resistance is likely to be broken once short-term positive news emerges. [Personal opinion, for reference only, and should not be used as investment advice!]