Currently, 61% of the total quantity of Bitcoin is in profit.
That seems good at first, but then you remember that one internal Coinbase transfer from six months ago is slightly inflating the data traders use to forecast the market.
At its current price of $76,490, Bitcoin is being studied by onchain experts in a market that is giving mixed signals. According to the latest data, a significant portion of coins in circulation is currently sitting on unrealized profit, creating an optimistic outlook.
However, if you delve deeper, you'll uncover a dataset that was discreetly manipulated by an accounting procedure that took place nine months ago, with its repercussions only now starting to surface.
What is the source of the disparity?
Coinbase conducted a major internal wallet rearrangement in November 2025, involving 800,000 BTC, worth over $70 billion at the time. Even seasoned market participants may be confused by the waves that this unique event is now creating across different on-chain indicators.
What 61% in Profit Actually Tells You
When you consider that 61% of Bitcoin's supply is sitting on unrealized profit right now, it seems like the market is really behind it.
Buyers who hold coins for profit likely bought them at a discount to their current market value, which should reduce short-term selling pressure because there is less incentive to sell.
Nevertheless, the external factors are quite important. The percentage of supply kept in profit has historically remained over 75% throughout proven bull market stages.
Bitcoin is currently in a transitional period, with a reading of 61%. This means that it is avoiding the terrible conditions of a full bear market, where losses prevail, and about 45% of the supply is underwater.
Still, it pales in comparison to the euphoric peaks that characterize genuine bull markets.
Historically, a ratio of near-equilibrium between profit and loss has indicated significant capitulation danger, and when Bitcoin went below $60,000 earlier in this cycle, it dipped to 51.1%.
Although the market has recovered from that unstable position, getting back to a stable state has not been easy. It is critical for those who want to hold on to their holdings that the market has a healthy amount of unrealized profits.
On the other hand, things change drastically as we approach saturation, leaving the market vulnerable to unexpected downturns.
Certain ceiling concerns are also presented by the metric.
Previously, markets have displayed symptoms of overheating and become susceptible to rapid corrections when almost the whole supply reaches a condition of unrealized profit, approaching 100%.
If you want your rising trend to be strong and last, aim for a range of 75% to 90%.
While 61% is encouraging, there has to be a lot of work done to bring the numbers in line with the experiences that are often shared online.
The Boredom Metric: How Many Days Has This Taken?
Among the most interesting indicators available in the on-chain toolbox is one that tracks a psychological component: the total number of days that Bitcoin's price has been higher than its present level.
It is 476 days.
In the past, there have been notable market bottoms that occurred when the number of "higher days" exceeded 660. On February 5, 2026, the most recent measurement that was close to that limit was 635 days.
As a symbol of our collective strength, the figure stands tall.
The Ghost Trade
Here is where the narrative takes a turn — and where individuals looking to grow their wealth must exercise extra vigilance.
On-chain analyst Darkfost, in a social post, recently brought attention to an unusual situation: in the span of two days, the quantity of Bitcoin owned by long-term holders (LTH) wallets that have not transferred their coins for at least 155 days increased by 800,000 BTC.
This course of action seems quite hopeful at first sight.
When LTH accumulates, it usually means that the market's most bullish individuals are spending heavily, happy to hedge their bets and weather any future storms.
? Currently, around 61% of the Bitcoin supply is being held in profit.
— Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 24, 2026
At first glance, this may seem relatively high, but in reality it remains a fairly low level.
Historically, during bull market phases, the share of supply held in profit tends to stay above 75%.… pic.twitter.com/YLZ3GjfZqx
But that is absolutely not the case now.
Rather than actual accumulation, the two-day spike from 15 million to 15.8 million BTC was caused by an internal move within Coinbase in November 2025.
It has been precisely six months after that move, which caused 800,000 BTC to be automatically reclassified from short-term to long-term holder supply, and this came on Saturday, May 23rd.
Coinbase moved almost 800,000 BTC across its internal wallets for maintenance on November 22nd and 23rd, 2025, and that's where the true problem lies. Instead of buying, selling, or sending market signals, the exchange was just reorganizing its own custodial system.
Unfortunately, this operation reset the age clock on those coins by generating new short-term UTXOs and eliminating existing long-term holder ones.
Those 800,000 assets have now cleared the barrier of being considered long-term holders simultaneously, which came at exactly six months after they were short-term assets according to typical on-chain accounting methods.
A substantial rise in the long-term holder supply figure—roughly equivalent to the total Bitcoin reserves held by numerous sovereign wealth funds combined—was caused by the reclassification, which took effect on Saturday, May 23rd.
What Darkfost's Warning Means for Traders
The implications extend well beyond a single metric. Several computational systems, on-chain dashboards, and trading models rely on the rise of LTH supplies as a crucial indication.
A false impression of high conviction accumulation—an illusion that did not exist—would have been produced by any model that ignored the Coinbase maintenance transfer while processing the apparent 800,000 BTC long-term holder rise.
Darkfost said, "Market participants might want to exercise caution when making decisions with this on-chain signal, considering that it does not truly reflect an increase in investor demand."
The warning from Darkfost is especially pertinent since these signals might affect monetary resources. Participants in the retail and institutional sectors both make strategic adjustments based on long-term supply patterns.
While Bitcoin price is still fighting to break through critical resistance levels, an erroneous interpretation of such a large and unexpected surge might cause investors to get too optimistic.
There has been previous evidence that shows the Coinbase transfer garnering a lot of interest.
Analysts have been required to incorporate disclaimers in their reports on the November shuffle and its impact on metric accuracy since then. One recent example of this pervasive misrepresentation is the May 23 graduation ceremony, which is also one of the most noticeable.
The $80,000 Wall: Where Bitcoin Needs to Go Next
Taking a moment to filter out the surrounding noise, the key question regarding price is clear: is Bitcoin capable of maintaining a position above $80,000?
In a distinct evaluation, Darkfost pinpointed the cost basis for short-term holders — the average purchase price of coins possessed by individuals with an investment period of less than 155 days — as the upcoming significant barrier.
That level currently stands just above the $80,000 threshold.
The importance of this threshold extends beyond mere psychological factors associated with round numbers.
Individuals with short-term positions who find themselves at a loss compared to their initial investment experience both psychological and financial stress whenever the price nears that average.
Instead of waiting for a turnaround, many individuals are opting to minimize their losses as the price nears their break-even point, resulting in ongoing selling pressure that has limited several recent upswings.
For the recovery to truly take hold, Bitcoin must maintain a consistent position above $80,000 — not just a fleeting touch or a temporary surge, but a prolonged consolidation above the short-term holder cost basis that transforms those sellers into a foundation of support.
Until that happens, any upward movement into the $78,000–$80,000 range is expected to encounter resistance.
The Bottom Line
With 61% of its supply in profit, Bitcoin's price of $76,490 suggests a market that is healing rather than completely recovering. Although it hasn't yet achieved bullish levels relative to historical benchmarks, the profit signal indicates promise.
Rather than signaling a new accumulating pattern, the increase that garnered notice this week is really an aberration of the data. And the $80,000 barrier that short-term investors are defending from a negative market position is closely related to the way to sustained growth.
Big revelations are on the way in the next few weeks. The situation changes drastically if Bitcoin can confidently recover $80,000.
