Dogecoin (DOGE) staged a modest bounce this week after on-chain data showed the supply held on centralized exchanges flipped from net negative to net positive, a technical signal that has historically preceded sharp rebounds, according to one of the market’s most followed chartists.
A Glassnode chart shows the exchange net position change for DOGE turning green after a prolonged period of outflows. That metric tracks the 30-day change in coins held on exchanges; a move into positive territory means more DOGE is being deposited to trading platforms than withdrawn, a shift traders often interpret as increased selling readiness but, paradoxically, one that has foreshadowed quick recoveries when paired with other conditions.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez flagged the move on social media, tweeting , “Dogecoin $DOGE supply on exchanges just turned positive! This shift has marked sharp rebounds before.” Martinez, who is widely followed for his mix of on-chain and technical commentary, has pointed to similar supply dynamics in the past as a precursor to fast rallies and increased volatility.
Prices reacted in kind. DOGE has lifted off local lows and is trading in the roughly $0.15–$0.16 range at the time of writing, recovering some ground after recent pressure. There is intraday volatility for Dogecoin, which is driven by a mix of whale activity and broader crypto market sentiment.
The context for the move is complex. This year has seen elevated institutional interest in meme assets, including the launch of the first Dogecoin-focused investment vehicle, which analysts say has both legitimized the asset and introduced a new layer of liquidity dynamics. In September, the DOJE ETF, a Dogecoin exposure product, began trading, creating fresh avenues for institutional flows into and out of DOGE. That institutional plumbing can amplify on-chain signals such as exchange reserve changes.
Dogecoin Price Outlook
Market technicians are split. Some view the exchange supply flip as evidence of short-term distribution, traders depositing coins to exchanges to sell, which could keep downward pressure on price if selling accelerates. Others point to historical episodes where a sudden inflow to exchanges was quickly followed by aggressive buy orders that produced a sharp bounce as liquidity met demand.
Experts noted Dogecoin “eyeing a rebound” after a test of multi-year support, a scenario consistent with the mixed read that exchange flows can deliver: initial volatility followed by strong directional moves once the market digests the flow. For traders, the practical takeaway is the same one Martinez emphasized: watch the price reaction to the exchange flow signal, not just the flow itself.
If DOGE’s short-term rebound is accompanied by rising volume and a reclaim of the $0.22–$0.27 range that many analysts have flagged as key resistance, momentum players could pile in and push the token significantly higher. Conversely, if the price fails to hold gains and large exchange deposits continue, sellers may drive a deeper correction.
Recent analysis has highlighted $0.20 as an important structural floor and $0.27 as the level bulls need to defend to sustain any meaningful breakout. As always with meme coins, risk and reward sit side-by-side. Dogecoin’s narrative has evolved; it now has more institutional eyes on it than in earlier cycles.
However, its fundamentals remain driven by community sentiment, whale behavior and macro liquidity. For now, the exchange supply flip adds a fresh and watchable chapter to the DOGE story. Traders who follow on-chain signals will be watching whether the latest inflows translate to immediate selling pressure or whether they mark the start of another volatile rally.
