Bitcoin Tests Patience Below Short-Term Cost Basis as Options OI Rises
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Key Takeaways
- Momentum continues to fade as BTC remains rangebound between $109,500 and $107,200, settling near $108,750.
- Spot flows cooled: Yesterday, Bitcoin ETFs saw $101 million outflow; Ethereum ETFs saw $19 million in outflows, with institutional demand wavering over the past few days.
- Long-term holder selling remains elevated (30-day SMA > 22,000 BTC/day) with persistent distribution now acting as a structural headwind.
- Options Open Interest (OI) rose to an all-time high while put demand also rose. This signals short-term options that could amplify intraday moves.
- Critical bands: short-term holders’ cost basis $113.1k, 0.85 quantile $108.6k, 0.75 quantile ~$97.5k. Losing the 0.85 band risks deeper drawdowns.
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